Underwriting • Horizonten Properties https://new.horizontenproperties.com Tue, 05 Nov 2024 15:47:45 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.2 https://i0.wp.com/new.horizontenproperties.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/cropped-H10P_Logo-PNG.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Underwriting • Horizonten Properties https://new.horizontenproperties.com 32 32 215013387 Understanding Equity Structure: Common Profit-Splits https://new.horizontenproperties.com/2023/11/09/understanding-equity-structure-common-profit-splits/ https://new.horizontenproperties.com/2023/11/09/understanding-equity-structure-common-profit-splits/#comments Thu, 09 Nov 2023 08:48:00 +0000 https://new.horizontenproperties.com/?p=801 When modeling the equity structure in a real estate deal, flexibility is important, as there are countless nuances to consider. Here, I will expand upon two common but different ways to structure the profit splits between general partners (GPs) and limited partners (LPs): IRR Hurdle Waterfall and CoC Hurdle + Promote.

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When modeling the equity structure in a real estate deal, flexibility is important, as there are countless nuances to consider. Here, I will expand upon two common but different ways to structure the profit splits between general partners (GPs) and limited partners (LPs): IRR Hurdle Waterfall and CoC Hurdle + Promote.

First, let’s define some key terms:

Limited Partner (LP): passive investor with limited control rights

General Partner (GP): active partnership with control rights who organize and offer the investment.

Promote: Share of profits allocated to the GP, usually after a preferred return is paid to LPs

Preferred Return: the return that LPs are entitled to before GPs can earn their promote

Cash on Cash Return: Return metric that measure return on capital (Cash Flow / Capital Invested)

IRR: Internal rate of return, a sophisticated return metric that provides the time value of money-adjusted return of an entire project (capital outlay, cash flow, and liquidity events) – must include return of capital.

Waterfall: type of profit-sharing model that includes tiers or hurdles in order to incentivize GP performance.

Hurdle: the return threshold that LP cash flows must achieve to advance to the next tier in an equity waterfall structure.

Screenshot from HorizonTen Properties Multifamily Underwriting Model

You can see that both structures feature a preferred return, but it is important to understand that they can have completely different implications on LP returns due to the hurdle type. Let’s start with the more simple structure: cash on cash hurdle + Promote. In this example, LPs are entitled to an 8% cash-on-cash (CoC) return before any profit splits take place. In other words, GPs do not get compensated (by earning their promote) until LPs earn 8% on their capital. After this hurdle is met, GPs are entitled to their promote, which is 30% in this example.

In the IRR Hurdle Waterfall structure, LPs are entitled to a certain IRR before GPs can earn their promote. In this example, the IRR hurdle implies that LPs are entitled to a 7% IRR. Note: the IRR hurdle entitles LPs to not only a time value of money-adjusted 7% return ON their capital but a full return OF capital before any profit splits take place. Further, in this example, there is a waterfall aspect present. Here are the implications of the waterfall terms pictured in the above screenshot in simple terms:

Tier 1: LPs are entitled to a 7% IRR preferred return.

Tier 2: Thereafter, profits are split 80% to the LP and 20% to the GP until LPs earn a 15% IRR.

Tier 3: Thereafter, profits are split 60% to the LP and 40% to the GP.

I hope this helped demystify the profit-sharing models most common in commercial real estate syndication.

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Mastering Multifamily Underwriting: Avoiding Common Pitfalls https://new.horizontenproperties.com/2023/07/07/mastering-multifamily-underwriting-avoiding-common-pitfalls/ https://new.horizontenproperties.com/2023/07/07/mastering-multifamily-underwriting-avoiding-common-pitfalls/#respond Fri, 07 Jul 2023 08:35:00 +0000 https://new.horizontenproperties.com/?p=793 In the realm of multifamily investments, sound underwriting lays the foundation for success. As a multifamily investor and underwriter, I understand the critical importance of avoiding common pitfalls in underwriting to achieve profitable outcomes. In this article, we will explore five common underwriting pitfalls and provide practical insights to help you navigate them effectively.

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In the realm of multifamily investments, sound underwriting lays the foundation for success. As a multifamily investor and underwriter, I understand the critical importance of avoiding common pitfalls in underwriting to achieve profitable outcomes. In this article, we will explore five common underwriting pitfalls and provide practical insights to help you navigate them effectively.

Pitfall 1: Inaccurate Income Projections

One of the first pitfalls to avoid is overestimating rental income. Inaccurate income projections can have a significant impact on cash flow and overall profitability. To address this, conduct thorough market research, analyze historical data, and consider factors such as potential vacancies and economic changes. This approach will help you create more accurate income projections and make informed decisions.

Pitfall 2: Underestimating Expenses

Underestimating expenses can erode profitability and lead to financial challenges. It is crucial to carefully assess various expense categories, including maintenance, property management, utilities, etc. By accurately estimating costs through industry benchmarks, expert opinions, and comprehensive budgeting, you can ensure that expenses are adequately accounted for.

Note: It is very important to understand that pitfalls 1 and 2 deal directly with a property’s NOI projection, which translates to exit valuation – one of the most sensitive factors when calculating project-level returns. This means any slight miscalculation here will lead to an outsized impact on project-level return calculations, potentially leading to heavily misrepresented deals and ultimately unhappy investors.

Pitfall 3: Poor Due Diligence

Thorough due diligence is key to uncovering potential risks and hidden issues. Neglecting this step can have severe consequences. It is essential to inspect the physical condition of the property, review all relevant documentation, and assess market demand and competition. By conducting comprehensive due diligence, you will minimize surprises and make informed investment decisions.

Pitfall 4: Inadequate Risk Assessment

Inadequate risk assessment is a pitfall that can significantly impact multifamily underwriting. To mitigate risks effectively, analyze market trends, tenant demographics, economic indicators, and other factors that influence risk levels. By adopting a comprehensive risk assessment approach, you can make informed decisions and better protect your investment.

Pitfall 5: Neglecting Regulatory and Legal Considerations

Disregarding regulatory compliance and legal requirements is a pitfall that can lead to complications and legal consequences. It is crucial to understand and adhere to zoning regulations, obtain necessary permits, address environmental issues, and comply with tenant laws. By giving due consideration to regulatory and legal factors, you can avoid unnecessary setbacks.

How to Avoid Pitfalls: To navigate these common underwriting pitfalls successfully, here are some best practices:

  • Conduct thorough financial analysis, including income and expense evaluations.
  • Leverage industry tools, databases, and technology to enhance accuracy and efficiency.
  • Seek expert advice from professionals such as appraisers, inspectors, and attorneys.
  • Stay current on market trends, industry developments, and regulatory changes through continuous self-education and networking.

Avoiding common underwriting pitfalls is vital for achieving success and profitability in multifamily investments. By understanding and addressing the pitfalls of inaccurate income projections, underestimating expenses, poor due diligence, inadequate risk assessment, and neglecting regulatory considerations, you can make more informed decisions and protect your investments. Remember, diligence, research, and staying informed are key to mastering multifamily underwriting.

I invite you to share your experiences or ask questions in the comment section, as we can all learn from each other’s insights and build a vibrant community of knowledgeable multifamily investors and underwriters.

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Yield on Cost vs. Cap Rate When Evaluating Value-Add Commercial Real Estate https://new.horizontenproperties.com/2023/03/26/yocvscaprate/ https://new.horizontenproperties.com/2023/03/26/yocvscaprate/#respond Sun, 26 Mar 2023 16:21:00 +0000 https://new.horizontenproperties.com/?p=604 Cap rates, a key metric in commercial real estate, often miss vital aspects of an asset's potential, especially in value-add scenarios. Metrics like Yield on Cost (YOC) offer a more comprehensive view by considering stabilized performance, project costs, and development spreads, providing a richer understanding of an investment's true value beyond cap rates.

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The most fundamental metric in the commercial real estate space is, without a doubt, the capitalization rate or cap rate. It is calculated by dividing a property’s net operating income (NOI) by the purchase price (NOI ÷ purchase price). There are a variety of uses for cap rates, including gauging market appetite for a particular asset, evaluating a deal at a specific purchase price, and estimating a future exit price. Here I will focus on evaluating and comparing deals.

I argue that cap rate as a return metric fails to tell us the entire story. In fact, it tells us very little about the asset and its potential. This becomes more and more true the further the asset is from a stabilized state (e.g., the heavier the value-add). Take a 100-unit property with current average rents at $1000/mo. running at a 50% expense ratio (operating expenses equal 50% of income). This property generates $600,000 in net operating income ([$1,000 x 100 x 12] x 0.5). If the asking price for this property were $12,000,000, the cap going-in cap rate would be 5% ($600,000 ÷ $12,000,000). If the going market cap rate for assets like this one is 6%, then this asset seems way overpriced on the surface. But what if you learn that the property is experiencing a very high loss to lease (LTL), meaning their leases are severely under market rates? Similar units in the area are renting for $1,300/mo. and the subject property will only require about $1,000/unit in capital expenditures to compete with comparable properties. In addition, we also learn that the property has been run very inefficiently, and new ownership will have no problem running this particular asset at a 40% expense ratio. This is where the cap rate leaves us high and dry, and yield on cost comes in to give us a way to evaluate and fairly compare this value-add opportunity to others. 

The yield on cost (YOC) is calculated by dividing stabilized NOI by total project costs (stabilized NOI ÷ total project cost). Here, the denominator will include purchase price, capital expenditures, sponsor fees, and acquisition/financing costs. Assuming $500,000 for closing costs, this investment’s YOC would be 7.4%. This number is much more helpful when comparing two investment opportunities as it tells a much fuller story than the cap rate. This is because it includes the stabilized performance of the property and the costs associated with executing the business plan. In contrast, the cap rate considers the current NOI and purchase price alone. 

Taking it a step further, we can calculate something called a development spread. A development spread is the difference between the YOC and the market cap rate. It quantifies the value the business plan will add to the asset in the current market context. In our example above, the opportunity provides a 1.4% development spread (7.4% – 6%). Further, dividing the development spread by the market cap rate gives us the development lift, which indicates the value added as a percentage of the market cap rate. The example above shows a 23.3% development lift (1.4% ÷ 6%). This metric is helpful when comparing two opportunities in different markets or across asset classes (or any situation where market cap rates vary between assets).

While the cap rate certainly has its utility, I hope you can see that YOC and development lift tell a much more valuable story when evaluating and comparing two or more value-add opportunities.

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and consider sharing if you found value! Always feel free to reach out with questions or comments!

Dream bigger,

Jaden George

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Four Key Factors in Conservative Multifamily Underwriting https://new.horizontenproperties.com/2022/12/14/4factorsinunderwriting/ Wed, 14 Dec 2022 14:55:00 +0000 https://new.horizontenproperties.com/?p=545 It is only when these principles are understood and implemented that GP teams can identify those assets which provide strong returns to investors and weed out underperforming assets-protecting LP investments and boosting investor sentiment.

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Why Use Conservative Underwriting?

When underwriting a multifamily real estate asset, approaching projections of future performance with a conservative perspective is crucial. It is possible to make even the worst and riskiest deals look like home runs on paper without this approach. It is only when these principles are understood and implemented that GP teams can identify those assets which provide strong returns to investors and weed out underperforming assets-protecting LP investments and boosting investor sentiment. It is arguably more important for LPs to understand these concepts themselves so they can have the understanding to point out when an offering may be too good to be true and based on too aggressive underwriting. One of the best ways to vet a GP is by taking a deep dive into their underwriting. The offering could seem like a homerun when a 20%+ IRR is in bold on the front page of the offering but when 4% income growth from day 1, flat or even contracting residual cap rates, and a 24-month full value-add/exit is behind the calculations; the deal could easily turn into a single-digit IRR project when more realistic numbers are factored in.

There are many aspects of underwriting that can be investigated in this article however I will only be highlighting four of the most essential and sensitive factors: income growth, residual cap rate expansion, hold time, and value-add realization.

I.                Income Growth

Income growth is exactly what it sounds like. When dragging the pro forma performance of the property across 10 years in the future, there is a factor of growth expected to be applied to rents. This is to account for the long-term appreciation of rents due to inflation as well as supply and demand. This does not come from value-add initiatives, simply natural rent growth. Common numbers for this factor are somewhere between 2 and 3 percent. This factor is a very sensitive input, meaning even a small delta has a large impact on the project-level IRR calculation. In an effort to be conservative, a good practice is to suspend rent growth during the value-add time frame of the project, if one is present. Furthermore, in market conditions such as the ones we are seeing at the time of writing (nearing the end of 2022), with recessionary macroeconomic policies in effect (tightening of the money supply with rising interest rates), it does not make much sense to underwrite at or above-average rent growth in the near future.

To demonstrate how sensitive this input can be, I will use my underwriting from a 24-unit asset near the Charlotte, NC market. With 3.0% income growth from Year 1 – Year 5, the projected IRR is 20.42%. When we take income growth down to 0% for the first 24 months to account for both value-add initiatives as well as uncertainty in the macroeconomic climate, the projected IRR drops to 15.62%.

II.              Residual Cap Rate Expansion

One of the most arbitrary but sensitive (dangerous combination) factors in underwriting is the residual cap rate. This is the projected prevailing cap rate at the time of project exit. This input is so sensitive because it directly affects the residual property valuation, which directly affects the project-level IRR. If it is such an arbitrary number, how do operators project it? Common practice includes taking current prevailing market cap rates for a stabilized version of the asset and adding an annual expansion factor. This factor is directly added to the current cap rate each year in future valuation calculations, increasing the residual cap rate with each year that passes in the project hold time. It is common to see cap rate expansion factors of 10-15 basis points.

Failure to include this factor in underwriting is a mark of inexperienced underwriting that can be very misleading at project-level returns. Using the example underwriting of the same asset as in Part I, I will show how leaving this factor out can inaccurately inflate project performance. With a residual cap rate expansion of 10 basis points and a project hold time of 5 years, the projected IRR is at 15.62%. Overlooking this factor and underwriting at flat cap rate expansion produces a projected IRR of 19.53%, almost 400 basis points higher.

III.            Hold Time

As an LP and potential passive investor, it is important to find deals that align with your long-term goals. If you are wanting stable and strong cash flows from day 1 and a long-term hold, a heavy value-add deal with a 3-year hold time may not be the best place for you to put your money. For projects that are heavier value-add deals that have a shorter projected hold time, it is important that the operator not be too optimistic and aggressive when projecting the project’s hold time. This is because IRR is actually very sensitive to project hold time. Even if a project’s value-add only includes eliminating loss-to-lease, underwriting at a 12-month hold may be entirely unrealistic given the number of units and even the legal environment of the market. Not only is it unrealistic, but it is also inorganically inflating the projected IRR. This is because IRR is a return metric that accounts for the time value of money. Therefore, cashflows that are distributed in Year 1 are worth more than equal cash flows distributed in Year 2, since Year 2 cashflows are discounted. By projecting a liquidity event too soon, you are inflating its weight on the IRR.

In the same example underwriting as above, a hold time of 2 years projects an IRR of 25.45%, while a more realistic (depending on the project) and conservative hold time of 3 years projects an IRR of 19.81%.

Note: Underwriting at a project hold time of fewer than 5 years can be tricky in and of itself as rate risk and cap rate volatility increase as hold times become shorter.

IV.           Value-Add Realization

With projects that have a value-add component, the length of time until the full value-add is realized and reflected in NOI can be a very sensitive and often misrepresented factor. Although this seems obvious, often fully optimized NOI can show up in underwriting at the start of Year 2 or even day 1 (huge mistake), even on 100 unit+ deals. This will throw project valuations way off track and inaccurately inflate valuations, especially when you think about the income growth mentioned in Part I being compounded and applied to these inflated NOI numbers. Nevertheless, this is a difficult factor to include in underwriting. How do we include value-add realization to our NOI at a reasonable rate? One way, and the way I have elected to use, includes taking T12 performance and then separately noting pro forma performance (performance at 100% value add completion). Then, come up with the length of time it will take to get NOI up to pro forma numbers – based on renovation scope, the number of units, etc. Finally, use a straight-line method to gradually increase NOI to pro forma NOI over the number of years it will take to get there.

For example, T12 NOI is $120,000 and pro forma NOI should be $150,000 (the premium is $30,000) and we estimate the value-add to take 24 months. Our Year 1 NOI will be $135,000 and Year 2 NOI will be the full $150,000.

Be wary of projects with a shockingly short amount of time allotted for value-add be sure to poke around as the LP to be sure the GP is fully aware of the implications of their value-add plans and be sure the projected returns are being reasonably calculated.

Wrapping Up

As with all things, there is a balance here. While being too aggressive when underwriting can lead to pursuing an underperforming deal for investors, underwriting too conservatively can lead to you never being able to pull the trigger. The idea here is to be able to defend all factors present in your underwriting.

These four factors are very sensitive and should be treated with caution by operators as well as carefully analyzed by potential investors to ensure reasonable return projections. 

 

Thank you for taking the time to read this and if you found it valuable please consider sharing it with friends!

 

Dream bigger, 

 

Jaden George

HorizonTen Properties

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